Rising Prices

Discussion in 'The Other Stuff' started by Econ, May 3, 2021.

  1. tfischer

    tfischer A bad day camping beats a good day at the office Gold Supporting Member

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    I don't pretend to understand economics. At all. But if the dollar is set for hyperinflation, I don't see how selling ones house is the right move. After all, my house will always be worth "one house". if I sell it, let's just say for 100 TimCoins... right now the house might be worth 100 TimCoins, but after the hyperinflation, the house might be worth 10000 TimCoins. And it would have been better to have hung onto it rather than cashing in its value, because every other place that I would want to live in is going to similarly inflate.

    What am I missing here?
     
  2. Sjm9911

    Sjm9911 Well-Known Member Gold Supporting Member

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    Your missing that they try to fix it. So its only worth 10000 tim coins now, but your betting you can buy a similer or nicer house after the inflation goes back down. So you wait a year, then get a house for 5000 tim coins and pocket the rest. The guy that bought your house is the looser in this senerio. And its a gamble that it levels off and goes back down. But you are correct at this time and area 1 house equalls one house. But move the area and your could get a house cheaper. So there are 2 schools of thought on this.
     
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  3. Sjm9911

    Sjm9911 Well-Known Member Gold Supporting Member

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    Oh and where do i buy this timcoin? I want to get in on this one before it goes up like bitcoin.
     
  4. tfischer

    tfischer A bad day camping beats a good day at the office Gold Supporting Member

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    Just paypal me your money in USD. I'll do the conversion for you and keep track of everything ;)
     
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  5. firepit

    firepit Well-Known Member

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    Man...If your gonna sell your house and full time RV...You would make out like a bandit.
    Around me there are bidding wars for houses.
     
  6. Econ

    Econ Well-Known Member

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    I am half way through responding to @firepit but haven't finished. Been feeling poorly for a week. I wont forget to respond and will try to keep it simple.

    The old joke is economists spend half their time predicting what will happen and the other half explaining why it didnt. Yes, I have a piece of paper, its old though<GG>. <GG> The economy is complicated which explains why gov bureaucrats can't control it. The Fed is a joke. There is a book titled "Fed Up." She starts each chapter with a quote from Bernake, the sec of state or another. Its been years since I last read it.To make up a quote out of thin air its like Bernake saying there is no problems with subprime mortgages 2 months before Countrywide implodes. Another bubble popping surprise would be leaman brother. These jokers are clueless. Every chapter starts with a unbelievable quote showing the depth of cluelessness. As far as the market, we are in a massive bubble. If things start going bad smart money enters and corrects the level. the bubble pops when something unexpected happens and the herd stampedes. Its a panic.

    The market is based on math in the long run but fear and greed in the short . Imagine a chain letter . The first one in make a killing. The problem is at the end there is no "next rung" to sell to. The Robinhooders are probably the last rung this time.

    Someone asked the question when do the bubbles pop? It will end when the fools run out of money. The real estate bubble is repeating 2006 to 2007. I'd say we ar e in first half 2007. If DW would let me I would sell the house and camper and wait. Keep your eye on the los vegas real estate market. I figure its in late cycle

    The hyperinflation v inflation v deflation debate. Tell me which you believe in and I' ll tell you which school of economics you believe in. Problems: there is a political party that believes in MMT.MMT must be stopped at all costs. The M2 chart goes straight to demand pull inflation. A minimum wage increase should be stopped and the law revoked . It goes to cost push inflation. There is a group of economst arguing that total debt is deflationary. The Fed wets their pants if you just say that word. Buffets favorite indicator is setting all time highs. 2 by 4s are 13.00 apiece. The workforce participation rate if only 2 points above its alltime low and has been trending down. for over the last 2 decades..

    What we need is a severe recession with lots of pain and suffering, a ouji board, and the ability to raise the ghost of Paul Volker for a conference. A recession to economics is like a severe hangover is to drinking. After you recover a week later you swear off drinking for the next 10 years.

    This is what I have done
    1) Paid off all debt
    2) Bought must have items
    3) stockpile, I have 6 month supply of TT. <GG>
    4)Did major maintenance on the vehicles
    5 liquidated the portfolio
    Invested in *** with very tight stops. This is a very risky move.

    Coming back from Costo I was humming a tune from 1972. You have 2 political parties. Fools to the left of me and jokers to the right, here I am stuck in the middle with you. By the way Costco doesnt require masks.

    The worst source of economic news. ABC. NBC, CBS, NPR, Fox, cnn NYT, WSJ, barrons. The above is for the consumption by the sheep.

    You'll love this. Look up core inflation rate. It excludes food and oil ***edit the Fed believes the food and fuel prices are too volatile. ( they are also the best remembered)
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2021
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  7. Econ

    Econ Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like 2007, a very bad sign. Real estate peaked locally in June 2007

    Hope to pick up a cheap 911 soon.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2021
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  8. davekro

    davekro Well-Known Member Gold Supporting Member

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    Econ,
    Thank you for the time and knowledge you shared. I appreciate your perspective and your sharing in real terms how the economic landscape looks to you at this snap shot in time. Interesting that Las Vegas may be a canary in th coal mine this cycle. By definition, economic cycles repeat themselves of course. Unfortunately, history seems to follow a similar pattern.

    I hope you feel better very soon!
     
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  9. Econ

    Econ Well-Known Member

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    Sam Zell is in gold right now. Playing the same game his whole life. Amasses a realestate empire dirt cheap. sells late in the cycle at a higher price. Big recession, buys real estate dirt cheap- later sells at higher price.

    Or maybe you would like to consider the smart money stockpickers. Buy dirt cheap when there is blood in the streets, sell at jacked up prices when the infamous shoe shine boy enters the market. Only they are now called the Covid refugees hiding in the basement. Or Robinhooders. Bottom line they are sheep to be shorn. These sheep are also called new campers for the last year. lather , rinse, repeat.

    **
    It is better to get out early with something than late with nothing.
    *******


    One more thing. If the current administration gets the long term capital gains tax they have promised to their disciples that's when the masses head for the theater doors and this thing collapses.

    Or MMT or the $15 minimum wage

    Fire! Fire!
     
  10. Econ

    Econ Well-Known Member

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    There are 3 current theories. Shadow Stats said inflation was 12 % y/y. The it is what it is theory. The newer massive debt is deflationary theory . The extreme spending of the fed gov is gasoline. All you need is velocity (match) to pick up.

    Why selling house is the right plan in case of a weimar republic. You exchange your house profits to a inflation resistant asset and live in a much smaller house/ something/camper/ what ever.
     
  11. tfischer

    tfischer A bad day camping beats a good day at the office Gold Supporting Member

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    Yeah, not gonna happen lol. I still have kids at home. I have no interest in downsizing.

    But... house is just a few years from being paid for.
     
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  12. firepit

    firepit Well-Known Member

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    Im in the same boat...but when my house is paid for in a few yrs we will down size and move closer to my brother.
    I could never full time RV...i need a place to come back to and recharge.
     
  13. tfischer

    tfischer A bad day camping beats a good day at the office Gold Supporting Member

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    I do my recharging with hobbies. I do woodworking... pretty hard to do that out of an RV. And most other hobbies need some sort of workspace to do builds in... hard to do that in an RV too.

    I have no plans to downsize... at least while I'm physically able to keep up my current place and can financially afford it (should be easier once it's paid for)
     
  14. Econ

    Econ Well-Known Member

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    You're still making house payments ????????? <GG>

    Grandkids are more furn than kids.
    plus you can send them home <GG>

    I dont have to live here except right now I am anchored here by a hospital
     

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