Tx State Parks

Discussion in 'General Camping Discussion Forum' started by Miamama1, Apr 17, 2020.

  1. BBQdave

    BBQdave Active Member

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    And that's why my undergraduate studies was in the arts and not the sciences :)
     
  2. tenttrailer

    tenttrailer Art & Joyce - Columbus, O

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    I don't know where you get your numbers.
    Here is what I cut and pasted for the USA, just now. CDC has a slightly lower number.


    Confirmed
    795,383

    Recovered
    71,861

    Deaths
    42,486
     
  3. BBQdave

    BBQdave Active Member

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    Confirmed cases of COVID-19 are based on testing.

    The vast majority of people in the U.S. have not been tested.

    It is unknown the number of people positive with COVID-19.

    Confirmed cases of COVID-19 is irrelevant. Confirmed cases have no meaning in data analysis of COVID-19.

    With good confidence, you can say COVID-19 has been present and spreading in the U.S. for 3 months.

    From data, you can say that out of the 330,000,000 people in the U.S. 0.01% of them have died. You can also say 99.99% of the people in the U.S. have NOT died.

    You can also draw the conclusion, based on location of deaths, that dense populated areas have the most deaths.

    That's all the data is showing right now in the U.S.

    AGAIN, 0.01% of the U.S. POPULATION has DIED FROM A VIRAL DISEASE THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT AND SPREADING FOR THE PAST 3 MONTHS IN THE U.S.

    99.99% HAS NOT DIED.
     
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  4. FARfetched

    FARfetched Well-Known Member

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    You can't categorically say that "only 0.01% of the population has died from COVID-19," no matter how many all-caps you use. The 1918 flu pandemic took two years to run its course; and until we have a vaccine or herd immunity, numbers will continue to pile up. Second, without testing, you can only estimate. There's some evidence that deaths from "unknown pneumonia-like symptoms" have skyrocketed, compared to previous seasonal numbers… gee, I wonder what could have caused that?

    South Korea got it right—test, test, test. With 15% of our population (but higher density overall), they've had 1% of our deaths, and it's probably a more accurate figure than ours.
     
  5. firepit

    firepit Well-Known Member

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    Not To sound like a broken record......
    What are the flu death totals for last yr and this?
    What are the Corona Death Totals this year so far?
    At current pace what are the flu totals for 1 yr vs projected Corona death for 1 yr?

    Ah what the heck....Never mind....We will never get a true answer.....
    Just a answer directed to scare us into being under the govt 's thumb.
     
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  6. BBQdave

    BBQdave Active Member

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    Hey FARfetched,

    Check out Rand Paul's statement on the Senate floor about random testing nationwide and California random testing. I have not been able to verify his data claim, but if his account is true, there's some hope. Far more, Paul's account of the data is 25 to 50 times more, have been exposed to COVID-19 and survived and are carrying antibodies - then originally thought.

    It does fit the death rate (compared to U.S. population) rise. COVID-19 spreading for 3 months and 0.01% of the U.S. population dead.

    I would like to verify this random testing data. And Rand Paul's conclusion of 1/10th of 1 percent will be the top death toll, I believe is still far more than what the actual number of dead will be. Three months of COVID-19, and death toll is at 1/100th of 1 percent. That would be a steep climb to 1/10th of 1 percent, even over 2 years.

    FARfetched, we may have our herd immunity :)
     
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  7. BBQdave

    BBQdave Active Member

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    +1
    Sometimes all one can do is patiently show data. Show data over and over and over again. And Firepit you are correct, there is no difference.

    2018-2019 Influenza illness season: 34,200 deaths in the U.S. - CDC
    April 22, 2019 COVID-19 deaths: 46,079 in the U.S. - CDC
    Winter of 2018 flu: 80,000 deaths in the U.S. -CDC
    Heart disease...
    Auto accidents...
    Diabetes...

    Only one of these things shut a country down and tanked it's economy.

    And here's some life advice: turn off the cable news, turn off the television news, and look at the data directly from the CDC.

    You'll feel a whole lot better :)
     
  8. firepit

    firepit Well-Known Member

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  9. firepit

    firepit Well-Known Member

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    Im not going to say anything off topic directly but i think the reason for the attention the virus is getting is all about timing...There have been far worse illnesses that have not shut the country down.
    I will let people read between the lines as to what i am getting at ...Its pretty obvious
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2020
  10. BBQdave

    BBQdave Active Member

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    +1
    And the outcome to that battle is already decided. I think once again, the vast silent majority are being ignored. In Autumn they'll be heard. And once again the pancake make-up wearing talking heads will be stunned.

    I'm interested in the economic process, and perhaps overly optimistic, I feel we will gain even stronger holds on resources (foreign) and favorable trade. The challenge I see, shifting production from our largest foreign producer. It will have to be staged and not too openly done. We were already working on a better stance in that production - consumption relationship. It needs to continue improving.

    Again, I'm hopeful. And I've probably pushed the boundaries of discussion (outside of camping) as far as they should go :)

    Be well
     
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  11. FARfetched

    FARfetched Well-Known Member

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    OK, let's take that 80,000 flu number. That was for a whole year. We're three months into the COVID-19 pandemic, and "officially" it has killed over half that many. And that's just the confirmed cases. Some studies (remember the mahoosive lack of testing and that huge spike in "unknown pneumonia-like symptoms" deaths) suggest the number is twice that… which means in 3 months, COVID may well have already surpassed an entire year's worth of flu deaths.

    Plus, there's a flu vaccine. One can choose not to get it, and others may be unable to get it. But… "flu vaccinations among adults reduced the risk of being admitted [to ICU] with flu by 84%." So check my math, but wouldn't we have 6 times the number of flu hospitalizations without a vaccine? Of confirmed COVID cases, roughly 20% (19.04% on Planet Georgia according to today's stats) end up in the hospital. If a vaccine, or any of the treatments being researched, knocks that down to 4%? Much better.

    Anyway, I'm not going to suggest multiplying the current body count by four, because the lockdowns and social distancing are starting to put a crimp in the spread. Flu and colds are way down, for the same reasons… COVID is 5x more contagious than the average flu bug (measured by the average number of people one infected person spreads it to) and 10x more deadly. You may be OK with those odds; my avatar is a little out of date, but I have a 4yo and 10yo to raise. The 10yo has already lost his father, and I don't want to put him through that again. Politics has zip-all to do with it, I just don't like the odds.

    Testing needs to be as widespread as it is/was in South Korea before we can really understand the situation. With a good vaccine, COVID may be no worse than a bad flu, but it's still going to be a lot more contagious. But with testing, those who catch it can be quarantined and everyone else can do their thing(s). But until we have a good vaccine, and the ability to isolate only those who have COVID anyway, we'll need stronger measures to save lives. It's not quite the same thing as riding a motorcycle without a helmet, because it only hurts the rider(s)… as long as they don't breed. With a highly-contagious virus, you have to worry about more than yourself and family members. At least I hope you would.
     
  12. BBQdave

    BBQdave Active Member

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    NC Governor Roy Cooper shares your same methodology. Today he announced NC is shut down indefinitely. He put forth 3 metrics which need to be met before NC society is to restart. When those three metrics are met, it will be a staged reopening that will occur in small steps over 6 weeks.

    Unfortunately, 2 of his 3 metrics will never be met. Maybe in 2 years when testing positive for COVID-19 and antibodies present, it will be interpreted different, maybe not.

    You win. Society tanked. Economy tanked. Freedoms restricted. People out of work for 10 months (or more) dependent on government.

    Congratulations and good luck.
     

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